Hasn’t is been predicted for like…decades now that warming releases more greenhouse gasses which accelerates warming? That the feedback loop creates exactly what we are seeing now?
If I remember from the last time I was reading about it, the IPCC wasn’t using models that include feedback loops because they tend to be fairly conservative and there’s a number of different ways assumptions can be made.
I’m a biologist and not a climate scientist, but my understanding is that while feedback loops are widely accepted as being part of the dynamic, there’s a number of different approaches and those are available in individual modeling projects but not in the consensus models. I’m not sure if that’s changed, though.
The IPCC report must be agreed upon by representatives from every country. Including Saudi Arabia, and USA. So you can imagine how “conservative” it is compared to reality. Anything slightly uncomfortable gets negotiated down to the point where the oil-producing countries are fine with it.
The 195 member countries of the IPCC sign off on different parts of the report. The summaries for policymakers are “approved,” meaning that “the material has been subject to detailed, line-by-line discussion” between the member countries and the authors. The synthesis reports are “adopted,” which implies “a section-by-section discussion.” And the full report, which this year runs nearly 4,000 pages long, is “accepted,” which means both parties agree that “the technical summary and chapters of the underlying report present a comprehensive, objective, and balanced view of the subject matter.”
If people find the IPCC reports alarming as they are, imagine how alarming the draft from the scientists is before the Saudis, Russians and Americans get out the black markers.
This is largely because we simply don’t have the capabilities to model these systems with the accuracy needed to make useful predictions. Individuals, however, should absolutely be aware that things can go bad far quicker than we’re able to deal with.
Yes, but they’re trying to figure out if that’s where we’re at or if this is a temporary blip from the Honga Tonga Honga Ha’apai volcano.
Most volcanoes that size would cool the planet by ejecting a bunch of ash and sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere. But the Tonga volcano was underwater, so it threw a metric shitton of water vapor into the upper atmosphere instead, and this has a warming effect. This is part of the reason for the increase in precipitation on the West Coast of the US this year.
Add this volcano on top of the near simultaneous flip into an El Niño pattern, and they’re just not sure how permanent the warming we saw this year is going to be. But any way you go about it, this is really not good. We’ve just experienced dramatic warming from two things that we can’t predict and can’t control, on top of the part where we’re not doing nearly enough about the things we can control.
Yep, it’s been well established for a while. I learned about this 25+ years ago in elementary school. But instead of doing anything since then, we added 2 billion people to the population.
Population growth is not a cause of climate change worth paying attention to. Most of those extra two billion were born in poor countries, especially in Africa. These countries have a fraction of the per capita emissions of wealthy countries like America that are currently seeing or soon to see population decline. When we’re having a conversation about how to control total emissions, it’s orders of magnitude more efficient to focus on per capita emissions than on population. For one, we can reduce per capita emissions without getting into ethical issues regarding population control or economic issues like those caused by the one child policy in China.
Per capita emissions can only be calculated in relation to the total population. It’s a required part of the formula.
Basically, I’d much prefer a world where 4 billion people get to live a life where pointless ‘for fun’ things like travel or going to a ski resort are ok emissions wise. I don’t at all want a world where 20 billion people have the same amount of emissions at the 4 billion mentioned above, but with 5x less resource use per person.
What total world population do you feel is reasonable while also maintaining some semblance of quality of life?
We can cut emissions hugely by eliminating plastic crap, building technology and tools to last, living in vibrant medium density neighbourhoods with public transit and bicycles for all, building renewable energy sources, and eliminating meat.
I wake up in the morning, ride my bike to a job where I fix old technology and make a difference, then pick up groceries from local and sustainable businesses, get some exercise and sun in on my bike, and make a delicious vegan meal like roast potatoes. I’m happier, more active, healthier, and I feel like my life makes a difference. You, meanwhile, get to ride around in your metal box having to maintain constant focus or you could kill someone, getting no exercise, and presumably eating meat that hurts animals, wastes carbon, and kills you faster. Of course you need a vacation on a plane to make you happy; your life is miserable.
Yeah, that subtitle is a bit strange. My best guess is that we’re only just smashing through the +1.5°C target and if I remember correctly, some years ago we assumed the accelerating effects wouldn’t really kick in until after that.
So, maybe that is genuinely a question, whether we’re now at the steep bit of the rollercoaster.
Hasn’t is been predicted for like…decades now that warming releases more greenhouse gasses which accelerates warming? That the feedback loop creates exactly what we are seeing now?
Or am I just smoking crack…
How many people in your circle of life would know what “Feedback Loop” meant in climate change?
Probably a very low percentage. People think it’s linear and won’t effect them. Sad years ahead mate.
Don’t look up.
I hope we are still in the “Don’t look (it) up” phase.
If I remember from the last time I was reading about it, the IPCC wasn’t using models that include feedback loops because they tend to be fairly conservative and there’s a number of different ways assumptions can be made.
I’m a biologist and not a climate scientist, but my understanding is that while feedback loops are widely accepted as being part of the dynamic, there’s a number of different approaches and those are available in individual modeling projects but not in the consensus models. I’m not sure if that’s changed, though.
The IPCC report must be agreed upon by representatives from every country. Including Saudi Arabia, and USA. So you can imagine how “conservative” it is compared to reality. Anything slightly uncomfortable gets negotiated down to the point where the oil-producing countries are fine with it.
https://qz.com/2044703/how-governments-of-the-world-have-responded-to-the-ipcc-report
If people find the IPCC reports alarming as they are, imagine how alarming the draft from the scientists is before the Saudis, Russians and Americans get out the black markers.
This is largely because we simply don’t have the capabilities to model these systems with the accuracy needed to make useful predictions. Individuals, however, should absolutely be aware that things can go bad far quicker than we’re able to deal with.
Yes, but they’re trying to figure out if that’s where we’re at or if this is a temporary blip from the Honga Tonga Honga Ha’apai volcano.
Most volcanoes that size would cool the planet by ejecting a bunch of ash and sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere. But the Tonga volcano was underwater, so it threw a metric shitton of water vapor into the upper atmosphere instead, and this has a warming effect. This is part of the reason for the increase in precipitation on the West Coast of the US this year.
Add this volcano on top of the near simultaneous flip into an El Niño pattern, and they’re just not sure how permanent the warming we saw this year is going to be. But any way you go about it, this is really not good. We’ve just experienced dramatic warming from two things that we can’t predict and can’t control, on top of the part where we’re not doing nearly enough about the things we can control.
Yep, it’s been well established for a while. I learned about this 25+ years ago in elementary school. But instead of doing anything since then, we added 2 billion people to the population.
Population growth is not a cause of climate change worth paying attention to. Most of those extra two billion were born in poor countries, especially in Africa. These countries have a fraction of the per capita emissions of wealthy countries like America that are currently seeing or soon to see population decline. When we’re having a conversation about how to control total emissions, it’s orders of magnitude more efficient to focus on per capita emissions than on population. For one, we can reduce per capita emissions without getting into ethical issues regarding population control or economic issues like those caused by the one child policy in China.
Per capita emissions can only be calculated in relation to the total population. It’s a required part of the formula.
Basically, I’d much prefer a world where 4 billion people get to live a life where pointless ‘for fun’ things like travel or going to a ski resort are ok emissions wise. I don’t at all want a world where 20 billion people have the same amount of emissions at the 4 billion mentioned above, but with 5x less resource use per person.
What total world population do you feel is reasonable while also maintaining some semblance of quality of life?
We can cut emissions hugely by eliminating plastic crap, building technology and tools to last, living in vibrant medium density neighbourhoods with public transit and bicycles for all, building renewable energy sources, and eliminating meat.
I wake up in the morning, ride my bike to a job where I fix old technology and make a difference, then pick up groceries from local and sustainable businesses, get some exercise and sun in on my bike, and make a delicious vegan meal like roast potatoes. I’m happier, more active, healthier, and I feel like my life makes a difference. You, meanwhile, get to ride around in your metal box having to maintain constant focus or you could kill someone, getting no exercise, and presumably eating meat that hurts animals, wastes carbon, and kills you faster. Of course you need a vacation on a plane to make you happy; your life is miserable.
deleted by creator
Yeah, that subtitle is a bit strange. My best guess is that we’re only just smashing through the +1.5°C target and if I remember correctly, some years ago we assumed the accelerating effects wouldn’t really kick in until after that.
So, maybe that is genuinely a question, whether we’re now at the steep bit of the rollercoaster.
I’d imagine their models already account for that
I think that they didn’t expect to see it starting that fast. It was predicted to start in a decade or two