cm0002@lemmy.world to memes@lemmy.world · 8 days agoConspiracieslemmy.mlimagemessage-square95fedilinkarrow-up1909arrow-down156cross-posted to: memes@lemmy.ml
arrow-up1853arrow-down1imageConspiracieslemmy.mlcm0002@lemmy.world to memes@lemmy.world · 8 days agomessage-square95fedilinkcross-posted to: memes@lemmy.ml
minus-squarezxqwas@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up3·edit-27 days agoIf you pick one you’re 5% likely to pick the right one and be 100% correct. You’re 95% likely to pick the wrong one. Then you miss the conspiracy that is true and you believe in one that is not true so 18/20 = 90% correct. Average out the probabilities and it should turn out to be something like 90.5%. Edit:I may be off on the maths now that I think about it.
If you pick one you’re 5% likely to pick the right one and be 100% correct.
You’re 95% likely to pick the wrong one. Then you miss the conspiracy that is true and you believe in one that is not true so 18/20 = 90% correct.
Average out the probabilities and it should turn out to be something like 90.5%.
Edit:I may be off on the maths now that I think about it.