Chain of thought doesn’t quite align with this. It’s possible to predict something not in training if there are sufficient facts in the history to align the probability toward a conclusion. (the “teach a man to fish” approach) Reasoning chains were introduced to take advantage of this, but it’s also possible to prime facts through external sourcing that can be used to extend the predictions. (web searching, document traversal, etc.)

Your larger point remains accurate though. Introspection capabilities are functional but quite limited, and training bias can be quite pathological in a vacuum.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_company_(Japan)

A black company (ブラック企業/ブラック会社, burakku kigyō/burakku gaisha), also referred to in English as a black corporation or black business, is a Japanese term for a company that is exploitative or abusive towards its workers.

(snip)

While specifics may vary from workplace to workplace and company to company, a typical practice at a black company is to hire a large number of young employees and then force them to work large amounts of overtime without overtime pay. Conditions are poor, and workers are subjected to verbal abuse and “power harassment” (bullying) by their superiors. In order to make the employees stay, superiors of black companies would often threaten young employees with disrepute if they chose to quit.

Similar activation threshold issues to mine, but I’m freshly diagnosed with inattentive type ADHD. You should probably avoid Prozac; I was put on that before diagnosis and it eroded the ability of deadlines to motivate me. Bad sleep + Prozac’s deadening effect on deadlines = losing one of your main control pillars. My rational mind recognizing that I should be more anxious about the consequences of not meeting the deadline and that normally it would have pushed me into actually starting it was quite the experience.

Your sleep pattern is also familiar: that’s deadline driven scheduling operating at daily cadence. The meeting is a deadline, so you planned being awake for the deadline. Worse, you may also have a failure mode where you sometimes work your way backward from the deadline to decide _when _ to sleep. You keep doing what you were doing before bed (especially if you if you enjoyed it after beginning it) until the deadline of needing to be awake looms. Overshoot that significantly? May as well skip sleep!

Since you are anchored by deadlines, have completion focus, and have difficulty maintaining an activity unless it is an established routine (until you fall off), try this:

• Split up the mental cost of planning and execution into two separate activities.
• Current-you plans for future-you, and executes what past-you assigned to it.
• The mode to explicitly avoid is relying on motivation in the moment to choose what to do. That’s when your compromised effort/benefit evaluation runs, which takes significant mental energy and collapses into doing something else / nothing.
• Breaking up the activity into two steps reduces the cognitive cost of both. Current-you just pathologically executes what past-you planned and put on the schedule. Don’t think, do.

The things that you are able to do reliably on a schedule are already “established habits”. These are practically free for the brain: repeated on a cadence, no in the moment assessment of energy or worth, you just do it. That’s all fine and good until something pulls you out of the habit; the longer before you get back into the habit, the more expensive restarting it becomes. Falling out of a walking routine is a common case, but I’ve even fallen out of brushing my teeth. In these scenarios I tend to obsess over damage already done and use that anchoring to not resume the activity. It effectively becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, purely in the basis of taking no action until the prophecy is fulfilled.

Anyway, enjoy your wall of text. It assumes a lot so I’ll hold off on dumping even more until you confirm whether this stuff is familiar to you at all.

I personally vote for being polite and cordial. Patiently wait for them to finish, then swat the camera right back down with a baseball bat.

Smile, then offer them the baseball bat and invite them to take a swing.

This world you keep imagining where Kamala would have invaded more countries than we have in this past year alone is quite the sight.

Tell me more. How many times will congress fail resolutions to narrow her war powers? Will the DoD get renamed to the Department of War Crimes? Will she fill her cabinet with actual circus clowns instead of the hand picked pool of media sycophants who aren’t experts in their fields? Will she build her ball room on top of her triumph arch? (idk, maybe it has death lasers and satanic pentagrams, that would be cool)

The “but Kamala” card requires entertaining the idea that literally any president other than the one that got voted in would have been able to outpace the malignant narcissism of senile Emperor Nero over here. It’s not an argument in good faith. It’s an argument for the guy who babbled incoherently about how tariffs work and then did exactly what he said he would.

Edit: Tee hee. If there is one thing ML and MAGA still agree on, it’s that the US is on the best trajectory for everyone. Albeit for very different reasons.

Department of War Crimes

Why not both moment:

Micro$lop