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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: July 10th, 2025

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  • The floor for this stock is under $30.

    The standard window is 180 days (about six months). What makes SpaceX unusual is that its lockup, as described in the company’s S-1 filing, releases shares in stages rather than all at once, so portions of employee stock are expected to become sellable at several points during that six-month period rather than only at the very end.

    • After the first quarterly earnings release as a public company (the quarter ending June 30, with the report expected sometime between mid-July and September), up to 20% of eligible locked-up shares become sellable.
    • A performance-based early release of up to an additional 10% can unlock if the Class A shares trade at least 30% above the IPO price on at least five of ten consecutive trading days before that first earnings release.
    • Five time-based tranches of up to 7% each release at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days after the IPO (about 35% in total across those dates).
    • After the second quarterly earnings release (the quarter ending September 30, expected between mid-October and December), up to an additional 28% becomes eligible.
    • At the 180-day mark (around mid-December for a mid-June IPO), any remaining restrictions lift. https://www.axonwm.com/post/when-can-spacex-employees-sell-shares-after-ipo

    Musk has been compensating his employees with stocks instead of salaries for 20 years. Some of those older employees were “paid in” at $3-4 after splits while employee’s as recent as 2024 would be holding shares @ ~ $30.

    I’m going to assume the current downward pressure is people anticipating this late-july deadline allowing SPCX employees to sell off the first 20% of their stocks.




  • All the same situation would happen with future sight.

    Future sight is almost never portrayed as the viewer’s vision being permanently fast forwarded such that they cannot see the present. I honestly can’t think of an example where it is tbh.

    People with future sight always see the present at some point. This ‘curse/power’ is fundamentally different if you can only smell what is 3 minutes in the future and not the present.


  • smelling smells three minutes into the future

    Is the sense of smell fundamentally enhanced? My MIL can’t smell anything and hasn’t been able to since a teen. I on the other hand have an over sensitive sense of smell.

    I mean if it works similar to other time powers like seeing into the future, that future would be preventable.

    Depends on if can you can still smell current smells or if everything is fast forwarded by 3 minutes.

    Like lets say I smell a bakery down the road (within viewing distance but too far to actually smell) but I don’t like what they’re baking so I flip over a garbage can and cover myself in rotten eggs. Now if I changed the future, the baking smell should be replaced by the egg smell the moment I commit to tipping the garbage can. BUT if I instead smell rotten eggs 3 minutes before approaching the garbage can than my decisions are decided independently of the smell preview.


  • The share of private energy investment going into oil, gas and coal has slumped from about 50% to 28% since 2015, according an International Energy Agency database. The public sector, meanwhile, still invests most of its money in dirty power — 53%, down more marginally from 67% a decade ago.

    Bloomberg looking down on us like we can’t see through their bullshit.

    Hedge Funds are pulling money out of oil/gas and reinvesting in renewables and are using retail investors as exit liquidity. Same plan as SPCX using retail investors to pay their employees that were compensated in stocks.

    The rich are cashing out and leaving retail investors to hold the bag.